河南工业大学学报（社会科学版）

产粮大县奖励政策旨在激发县域粮食生产活力,夯实国家粮食安全根基。然而,该政策自2005年实施以来的具体成效尚需进行定量评价与验证。本研究运用双重差分模型,分别以200个和800个产粮大县作为实验组,实证分析了该政策在提升粮食产量方面的实际效果。研究结果显示,产粮大县奖励政策显著推动了粮食产量增长,且在更大范围的产粮大县中正向激励效果更为明显;在非主产区实施该政策的效果优于主产区。产粮大县奖励政策通过鼓励农业现代化投入和促进农户增收等途径间接提升了县域粮食产量。据此提出政策建议:一是构建差异化奖励政策体系;二是进一步加大对农业机械化投入的补贴力度;三是设立专项补贴与奖励机制,以持续提升政策实施效果。

The incentive policies of major grain-producing counties aim to stimulate grain production vitality and consolidate the foundation of national food security. However, policies effectiveness requires quantitative evaluation and validation since implementation in 2005. We employ a difference-in-difference(DID) model to empirically analyze the policy actual effect to grain output, utilizing 200 and 800 major grain-producing counties respectively as experimental groups. Results demonstrate that the incentive policy for grain producing counties has significantly promoted the growth of grain production, and has a stronger positive incentive effect in a larger range of grain producing counties. The effect in non-core production regions is stronger than the core production regions. The incentive policy for grain producing counties has indirectly increased the county's grain output by encouraging investment in agricultural modernization and stimulating farmers' income growth. Based on these findings, the following recommendations are proposed: designing a differentiated incentive policy framework; substantially increasing subsidies for agricultural mechanization investments; establishing specialized subsidy and incentive mechanisms to sustain policy effectiveness enhancement.